Altay 0-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Altay vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 23 as Altay welcome Konyaspor to Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 January 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Altay have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Altay, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Altay's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Altay are significantly better at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Konyaspor have posted 4W 3D 2L from 9 away outings — 1.67 PPG. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.67 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Konyaspor are 2.00 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Altay, 1 for Konyaspor and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Konyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Altay in-play and half-time data (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Altay 67% versus Konyaspor 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Altay 62% | Konyaspor 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Altay 0.90 xG and Konyaspor 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Altay attack 0.720 / defence 1.403 | Konyaspor attack 1.226 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.088. Altay's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Konyaspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.226 — the away xG of 1.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 Altay games / 21 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Altay 17% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 60%. Fair-value odds: Altay 5.88 | Draw 4.17 | Konyaspor 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Konyaspor (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Altay 60% | Konyaspor 56% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Altay vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Altay 17% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Altay 0.90 / Konyaspor 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Altay attack 0.720 / def 1.403 | Konyaspor attack 1.226 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Altay xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Konyaspor xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Altay vs Konyaspor kick off?
Altay vs Konyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı.
What was the final score in Altay vs Konyaspor?
Altay 0 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Altay vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı.
What competition is Altay vs Konyaspor part of?
Altay vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Altay vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Altay a 17% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 60% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Altay vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Altay and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Altay vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Konyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Altay 0W | Draws 0 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Altay and Konyaspor in?
Altay (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Altay's attack at 0.72x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Altay's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
17%
5.97
24%
4.21
60%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Altay xG
Total xG
2.77
1.87
Konyaspor xG
5.97
17%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
1.68
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
15%
6.49
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
3%
38.71
24%
4.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 11.8 | 11.0 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Altay vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Altay and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Altay and 1.87 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Altay vs Konyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Altay have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 4W 3D 14L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Altay is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor's form line: 12W 6D 3L from 21 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Konyaspor are the form team by 1.29 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Altay.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Altay have posted 0.78 PPG from 9 outings (2W 1D 6L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 4W 3D 2L from 9 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Altay are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.57 scored and 0.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Altay have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Konyaspor in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Altay
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Altay and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Altay have gone 4W 3D 14L in their last 21 games (0.71 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 12W 6D 3L in their last 21 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Altay at home or Konyaspor away?
Konyaspor's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Altay at home: 0.78 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Altay or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Altay have kept a clean sheet in 5% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Altay and Konyaspor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Altay
0
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Konyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Altay have won 0, Konyaspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Altay and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2022, when Altay 0-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Altay and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Altay are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Altay 67%, Konyaspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Altay) and 44% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor in 33%; Altay have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Altay home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Altay play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Altay's games and 56% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Altay vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Altay's recent games and 44% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Altay and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Altay have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Altay 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Altay 0-1 at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Altay 0.90 xG and Konyaspor 1.87 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Altay fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Konyaspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Altay attack 0.72 / defence 1.40 against Konyaspor attack 1.23 / defence 1.06, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Altay 17% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 60%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Altay 62%, Konyaspor 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Altay's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Konyaspor's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Altay (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Konyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.