Altay 1-1 Giresunspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Giresunspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Altay vs Giresunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı plays host to Altay versus Giresunspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Altay have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Altay have posted 2W 2D 6L at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Giresunspor (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Giresunspor have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Giresunspor are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Altay, 1 for Giresunspor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2021, ended 1–3 with Giresunspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Altay goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Giresunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Altay 54% versus Giresunspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Altay 51% | Giresunspor 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Altay 0.96 xG and Giresunspor 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Altay attack 0.688 / defence 1.149 | Giresunspor attack 0.735 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.345. Altay's attack strength of 0.688 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Altay games / 35 Giresunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Altay 29% | Draw 34% | Giresunspor 38%. Fair-value odds: Altay 3.45 | Draw 2.94 | Giresunspor 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Giresunspor at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Giresunspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Altay 50% | Giresunspor 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Altay vs Giresunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Altay 29% | Draw 34% | Giresunspor 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Altay 0.96 / Giresunspor 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Altay attack 0.688 / def 1.149 | Giresunspor attack 0.735 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Giresunspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Altay xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Giresunspor xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Altay vs Giresunspor kick off?
Altay vs Giresunspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı.
What was the final score in Altay vs Giresunspor?
Altay 1 - 1 Giresunspor.
Where is Altay vs Giresunspor being played?
The match is being played at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı.
What competition is Altay vs Giresunspor part of?
Altay vs Giresunspor is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Altay vs Giresunspor?
Our statistical model gives Altay a 29% chance of winning, Giresunspor a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Giresunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Altay vs Giresunspor?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Altay and Giresunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Altay vs Giresunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Giresunspor?
Record (1 meetings): Altay 0W | Draws 0 | Giresunspor 1W.
What form are Altay and Giresunspor in?
Altay (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Giresunspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Altay's attack rating (0.69) and Giresunspor's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Giresunspor's attack (0.73x) against Altay's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Giresunspor Win
29%
3.51
34%
2.96
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Altay xG
Total xG
2.09
1.14
Giresunspor xG
3.51
29%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
9%
10.92
14%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Altay vs Giresunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Altay and Giresunspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Altay and 1.14 for Giresunspor, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Altay vs Giresunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Altay's recent record stands at 9W 6D 20L from 35 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Giresunspor, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 16L across 35 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Altay against 1.23 for Giresunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Altay have managed 5W 3D 9L from 17 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Giresunspor's away record stands at 5W 3D 9L across 17 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Altay are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Giresunspor are on 1.09 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Altay
Current Season
Giresunspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Altay and Giresunspor in coming into this match?
Altay have gone 9W 6D 20L in their last 35 games (0.94 PPG), while Giresunspor have gone 12W 7D 16L in their last 35 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Altay at home or Giresunspor away?
Altay's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Altay at home: 1.06 PPG; Giresunspor away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Altay
1
Draws
1
Giresunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Giresunspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Altay have won 0, Giresunspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Altay and Giresunspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2022, when Altay 1-1 Giresunspor.
Who has won more matches between Altay and Giresunspor?
Giresunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Altay are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Giresunspor see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Altay 53%, Giresunspor 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Altay) and 41% (Giresunspor).
On the defensive side: Altay have failed to score in 35% of games; Giresunspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Altay home games / Giresunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Altay play Giresunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Altay's recent matches and 47% of Giresunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Altay vs Giresunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Altay's recent games and 41% of Giresunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Altay and Giresunspor tend to score early?
Altay have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Giresunspor in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Altay and Giresunspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı, Regular Season - 36, as Altay and Giresunspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Altay 0.96 xG and Giresunspor 1.14 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Altay attack 0.69 / defence 1.15 against Giresunspor attack 0.73 / defence 1.16, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Altay 29% | Draw 34% | Giresunspor 38%, with Giresunspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Altay 51%, Giresunspor 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Altay's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Giresunspor's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Altay 0.94 PPG, Giresunspor 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.