Altay 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Altay at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Altay vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Fatih Karagümrük travel to Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu to take on Altay. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 October 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Altay have gone 5W 0D 3L from 8 outings — a 1.88 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.88 goals per game, with 1.62 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Altay, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Altay at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu this season: 3W 0D 1L from 4 home games — 2.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 4W 2D 2L from 8 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.75 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.38. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.75 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.88 PPG (Altay) versus 1.75 (Fatih Karagümrük). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Altay in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Altay 75% versus Fatih Karagümrük 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Altay 88% | Fatih Karagümrük 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Altay 1.82 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Altay attack 1.058 / defence 1.079 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.786 / defence 1.426. League average goals — home 1.204 / away 1.159. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.426 — this is suppressing Altay's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Altay games / 8 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Altay 57% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 20%. Fair-value odds: Altay 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Fatih Karagümrük 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Altay (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Altay as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Altay 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 25% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Altay vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Altay 57% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Altay 1.82 / Fatih Karagümrük 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Altay attack 1.058 / def 1.079 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.786 / def 1.426 | league avg home 1.204 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Altay (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Altay xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Fatih Karagümrük xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Altay vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Altay vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Altay vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Altay 0 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Altay vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu.
What competition is Altay vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Altay vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Altay vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Altay a 57% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Altay the favourite.
Will both teams score in Altay vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Altay and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Altay vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Fatih Karagümrük?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Altay and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Altay (all comps): 5W-0D-3L in 8 | 1.88 PPG | GF 1.88 / GA 1.62 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.38 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Altay's attack at 1.06x the league average against Fatih Karagümrük's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Altay's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Altay Win
57%
1.76
23%
4.37
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Altay xG
Total xG
2.80
0.98
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
3%
30.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Altay vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Altay and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Altay and 0.98 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Altay vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, Altay have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 5W 0D 3L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Altay is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fatih Karagümrük's form line: 4W 2D 2L from 8 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Altay on 1.88 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Altay have posted 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L).
On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fatih Karagümrük's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Altay come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Altay are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.75 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Altay have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fatih Karagümrük in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Altay
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Altay and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Altay have gone 5W 0D 3L in their last 8 games (1.88 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Altay at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Altay's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Altay at home: 2.25 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Altay or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Altay have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Altay
1
Draws
1
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 2 meetings on record, Altay have won 0, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Altay and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2022, when Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 Altay.
Who has won more matches between Altay and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Altay see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Altay 50%, Fatih Karagümrük 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Altay and 50% for Fatih Karagümrük. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Altay home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Altay play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Altay's recent matches and 25% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Altay vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Altay's matches and 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Altay and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Altay have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fatih Karagümrük defy the odds to beat Altay 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Altay 0-1 at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Altay 1.82 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.98 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Altay fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Altay attack 1.06 / defence 1.08 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.79 / defence 1.43, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Altay 57% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 20%, with Altay to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Fatih Karagümrük win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Altay 88%, Fatih Karagümrük 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Altay's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Altay 1.88 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fatih Karagümrük win broke the near-deadlock. Altay (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.