Altay 0-2 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Altay vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Altay and Alanyaspor meet at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 January 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form
Altay (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Altay, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Altay at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı this season: 3W 1D 5L from 9 home games — 1.11 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.11 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Altay are significantly better at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Alanyaspor have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Alanyaspor are 0.60 PPG clear of Altay in recent Süper Lig fixtures (0.90 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Altay, 0 for Alanyaspor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 4–1 with Altay winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Altay half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Alanyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Altay 65% and Alanyaspor 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Altay 65% | Alanyaspor 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Altay 1.30 xG and Alanyaspor 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Altay attack 0.846 / defence 1.353 | Alanyaspor attack 1.047 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.082. Alanyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.336 — this is suppressing Altay's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Altay games / 20 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Altay 32% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 42%. Fair-value odds: Altay 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Alanyaspor 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Altay 67% | Alanyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Altay vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jan 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Altay 32% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Altay 1.30 / Alanyaspor 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Altay attack 0.846 / def 1.353 | Alanyaspor attack 1.047 / def 1.336 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Altay xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Alanyaspor xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Altay vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Altay vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 16 January 2022 at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı.
What was the final score in Altay vs Alanyaspor?
Altay 0 - 2 Alanyaspor.
Where is Altay vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı.
What competition is Altay vs Alanyaspor part of?
Altay vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Altay vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Altay a 32% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Altay vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Altay and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Altay vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Alanyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Altay 1W | Draws 0 | Alanyaspor 0W.
What form are Altay and Alanyaspor in?
Altay (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Altay's attack rating (0.85) and Alanyaspor's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (1.05x) against Altay's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
32%
3.17
26%
3.80
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Altay xG
Total xG
2.83
1.53
Alanyaspor xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
7%
14.67
11%
8.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Altay vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Altay and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Altay and 1.53 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Altay vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Altay come into this having played 20 games, going 5W 3D 12L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Altay is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.45 PPG from 20 outings (8W 5D 7L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Altay — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Altay's home form reads 3W 1D 5L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 1.22 points per game from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Altay are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.50 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Altay have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Altay
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Altay and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Altay have gone 5W 3D 12L in their last 20 games (0.90 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 8W 5D 7L in their last 20 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Altay at home or Alanyaspor away?
Alanyaspor's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Altay at home: 1.11 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Altay
0
Draws
1
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Alanyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Altay have won 1, Alanyaspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Altay and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2022, when Altay 0-2 Alanyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Altay are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Alanyaspor see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Altay 67%, Alanyaspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Altay and 56% for Alanyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Altay home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Altay play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Altay's games and 56% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Altay vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Altay's matches and 56% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Altay and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Altay have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Altay.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Altay 0-2 at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Altay 1.30 xG and Alanyaspor 1.53 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Altay fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Altay attack 0.85 / defence 1.35 against Alanyaspor attack 1.05 / defence 1.34, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Altay 32% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 42%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Altay 65%, Alanyaspor 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Altay's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points. Altay (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.