Alanyaspor 0-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu plays host to Alanyaspor versus Sivasspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 4 December 2021 at 10:30 UTC.
Current Form
Alanyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 1L across 6 games at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu this term (2.17 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
Sivasspor (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Sivasspor have posted 1W 2D 3L from 6 away outings — 0.83 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Alanyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sivasspor half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 43% versus Sivasspor 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 43% | Sivasspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.86 xG and Sivasspor 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.354 / defence 1.286 | Sivasspor attack 0.796 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.168 / away 1.092. Alanyaspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.354 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 14 Alanyaspor games / 14 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 53% | Draw 25% | Sivasspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Sivasspor 4.76. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 50% | Sivasspor 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 53% | Draw 25% | Sivasspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Alanyaspor 1.86 / Sivasspor 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.354 / def 1.286 | Sivasspor attack 0.796 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.168 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Sivasspor xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Alanyaspor 0 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 53% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Alanyaspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Sivasspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alanyaspor and Sivasspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (1.35) and Sivasspor's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sivasspor's attack (0.80x) against Alanyaspor's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
53%
1.87
25%
3.93
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.98
1.12
Sivasspor xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
3%
30.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.12 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alanyaspor come into this having played 14 games, going 7W 3D 4L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 1.14 PPG from 14 outings (3W 7D 4L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Alanyaspor's home form reads 4W 1D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Alanyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sivasspor have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.43 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 64%.
Defensively: Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 7W 3D 4L in their last 14 games (1.71 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 3W 7D 4L in their last 14 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 2.17 PPG; Sivasspor away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sivasspor won 0-3 on 31 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
4
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 2, Sivasspor have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2025, when Alanyaspor 2-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Alanyaspor, 83% for Sivasspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Alanyaspor) and 50% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Alanyaspor's games and 83% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 50% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sivasspor defy the odds to beat Alanyaspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Alanyaspor 0-1 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.86 xG and Sivasspor 1.12 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Alanyaspor fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.35 / defence 1.29 against Sivasspor attack 0.80 / defence 1.18, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 53% | Draw 25% | Sivasspor 21%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Sivasspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 43%, Sivasspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Sivasspor's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Sivasspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Sivasspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.