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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Alanyaspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sivasspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alanyaspor beat Sivasspor 2-0 at GAIN Park Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.76 xG and Sivasspor 0.94 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sivasspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.92 / defence 0.98 against Sivasspor attack 0.74 / defence 1.19, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 56% | Draw 24% | Sivasspor 20%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 48%, Sivasspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alanyaspor's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Sivasspor's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.29 PPG, Sivasspor 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights