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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Alanyaspor edge out Samsunspor 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alanyaspor beat Samsunspor 1-0 at GAIN Park Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.28 xG and Samsunspor 1.21 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Samsunspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.16 against Samsunspor attack 0.89 / defence 0.83, drawn from 67/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 38% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 34%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 49%, Samsunspor 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alanyaspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Samsunspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.24 PPG, Samsunspor 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights