Alanyaspor 5-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Konyaspor travel to Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 February 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Konyaspor are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alanyaspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Konyaspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Alanyaspor, 0 for Konyaspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Konyaspor trading profile (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 54% versus Konyaspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 50% | Konyaspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.42 xG and Konyaspor 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.094 / defence 1.319 | Konyaspor attack 1.036 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.182. Data: 26 Alanyaspor games / 26 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 33% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 42%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Konyaspor 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 60% | Konyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 33% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Alanyaspor 1.42 / Konyaspor 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.094 / def 1.319 | Konyaspor attack 1.036 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Konyaspor xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Alanyaspor 5 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 33% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Alanyaspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Konyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Alanyaspor 0W | Draws 1 | Konyaspor 0W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Konyaspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 1.09x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
33%
3.02
25%
3.98
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.04
1.62
Konyaspor xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
7%
15.20
10%
9.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.62 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, Alanyaspor have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 11W 7D 8L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor's form line: 14W 7D 5L from 26 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.54 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alanyaspor have posted 1.58 PPG from 12 outings (5W 4D 3L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 5W 3D 4L from 12 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.58 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Konyaspor in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 11W 7D 8L in their last 26 games (1.54 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 14W 7D 5L in their last 26 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.58 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Alanyaspor have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Alanyaspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
1
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 6, Konyaspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Konyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 50%, Konyaspor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Alanyaspor) and 50% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Konyaspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 58% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 50% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Alanyaspor run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Konyaspor 5-1 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.42 xG and Konyaspor 1.62 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.09 / defence 1.32 against Konyaspor attack 1.04 / defence 1.14, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 33% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 42%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Alanyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 50%, Konyaspor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.54 PPG, Konyaspor 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm. Konyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.