Alanyaspor 3-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 16 as Alanyaspor welcome Kayserispor to Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 28 December 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's home record at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kayserispor have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Alanyaspor at 1.30 PPG versus Kayserispor's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Alanyaspor have won 2, Kayserispor 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2022, ended 2–1 with Alanyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 60% versus Kayserispor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 58% | Kayserispor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.33 xG and Kayserispor 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.023 / defence 0.888 | Kayserispor attack 0.987 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.406. Data: 53 Alanyaspor games / 52 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 38% | Draw 28% | Kayserispor 34%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Kayserispor 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 60% | Kayserispor 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 38% | Draw 28% | Kayserispor 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Alanyaspor 1.33 / Kayserispor 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.023 / def 0.888 | Kayserispor attack 0.987 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Kayserispor xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 14:00 on Wednesday 28 December 2022 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Alanyaspor 3 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 38% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Alanyaspor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Kayserispor?
Record (2 meetings): Alanyaspor 2W | Draws 0 | Kayserispor 0W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Kayserispor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Kayserispor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (1.02) and Kayserispor's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kayserispor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
38%
2.61
28%
3.55
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.57
1.23
Kayserispor xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
11%
8.96
9%
11.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.23 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor come into this having played 52 games, going 22W 13D 17L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-D. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kayserispor sit at 1.35 PPG from 52 outings (19W 13D 20L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.52 PPG, Kayserispor on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alanyaspor's home form reads 12W 7D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Kayserispor have taken 0.88 points per game from 26 outings (5W 8D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kayserispor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.42 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 22W 13D 17L in their last 52 games (1.52 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 19W 13D 20L in their last 52 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.65 PPG; Kayserispor away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alanyaspor and Kayserispor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 May 2023, when Alanyaspor won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Kayserispor specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
2
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Kayserispor?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 6, Kayserispor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Alanyaspor 3-1 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Kayserispor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 62%, Kayserispor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Alanyaspor) and 54% (Kayserispor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Kayserispor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Alanyaspor's games and 62% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Alanyaspor's matches and 54% of Kayserispor's.
Do Alanyaspor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kayserispor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Kayserispor 3-1 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.33 xG and Kayserispor 1.23 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.02 / defence 0.89 against Kayserispor attack 0.99 / defence 0.90, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 38% | Draw 28% | Kayserispor 34%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 58%, Kayserispor 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Kayserispor's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.52 PPG, Kayserispor 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm. Kayserispor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.