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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Alanyaspor and Kayserispor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alanyaspor and Kayserispor finished level at 1-1 at GAIN Park Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.61 xG and Kayserispor 1.23 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Kayserispor attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 46% | Draw 25% | Kayserispor 29%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 49%, Kayserispor 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alanyaspor's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Kayserispor's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.25 PPG, Kayserispor 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights