Alanyaspor 1-3 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu plays host to Alanyaspor versus Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Tuesday 30 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Alanyaspor have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Alanyaspor at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Kasımpaşa (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Kasımpaşa's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Alanyaspor, 1 for Kasımpaşa and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2023, ended 1–4 with Kasımpaşa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Alanyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Kasımpaşa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 56% versus Kasımpaşa 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 65% | Kasımpaşa 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.33 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.894 / defence 1.087 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.741 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.419. Data: 72 Alanyaspor games / 71 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 41% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 32%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Kasımpaşa 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Alanyaspor 40% | Kasımpaşa 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 41% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Alanyaspor 1.33 / Kasımpaşa 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.894 / def 1.087 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.741 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Kasımpaşa xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 30 May 2023 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Alanyaspor 1 - 3 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 41% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (3 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Kasımpaşa 1W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (0.89) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (0.74x) against Alanyaspor's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 72/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.70
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.48
1.14
Kasımpaşa xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
8%
11.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.14 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 71 outings, Alanyaspor have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 29W 15D 27L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 26W 15D 30L from 71 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Alanyaspor against 1.31 for Kasımpaşa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Alanyaspor have posted 1.69 PPG from 35 outings (17W 8D 10L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 11W 8D 16L from 35 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.51 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 29W 15D 27L in their last 71 games (1.44 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 26W 15D 30L in their last 71 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.69 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Kasımpaşa go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kasımpaşa won 4-1 on 4 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
7
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 1, Kasımpaşa have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Kasımpaşa 1-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 54%, Kasımpaşa 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Alanyaspor) and 51% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Kasımpaşa in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 49% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Alanyaspor's matches and 51% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Alanyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Alanyaspor 1-3 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.33 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.14 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Kasımpaşa outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.74 / defence 0.91, drawn from 72/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 41% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 32%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 65%, Kasımpaşa 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.44 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.