Alanyaspor 2-0 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 35%, yet in-form Alanyaspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu plays host to Alanyaspor versus Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Thursday 23 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Alanyaspor have collected 1.80 PPG across 5 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 0D 2L. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa (all games): 1W 2D 2L across 5 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Alanyaspor's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Kasımpaşa's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Alanyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Kasımpaşa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Alanyaspor 20% | Kasımpaşa 40%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alanyaspor 40% | Kasımpaşa 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.08 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.862 / defence 1.324 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.745 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.096. Data: 5 Alanyaspor games / 5 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 35% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 35%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Kasımpaşa 2.86. The draw (29%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 29% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 20% | Kasımpaşa 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 35% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Alanyaspor 1.08 / Kasımpaşa 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.862 / def 1.324 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.745 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Draw (29%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Kasımpaşa xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 23 September 2021 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Alanyaspor 2 - 0 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 35% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-0D-2L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (0.86) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (0.74x) against Alanyaspor's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
35%
2.84
29%
3.40
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.16
1.08
Kasımpaşa xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.08 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, Alanyaspor have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 3W 0D 2L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Alanyaspor are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kasımpaşa.
Attack vs Defence
Alanyaspor are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games.
Defensively: Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Early Season
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 games (1.80 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
Have Alanyaspor or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Kasımpaşa go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kasımpaşa won 4-1 on 4 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
7
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 1, Kasımpaşa have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Kasımpaşa 1-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Alanyaspor) and 40% (Kasımpaşa) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Alanyaspor and 20% for Kasımpaşa.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Kasımpaşa in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 40% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 20% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Kasımpaşa 2-0 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.08 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.08 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kasımpaşa landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.32 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.74 / defence 1.15, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 35% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 35%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 40%, Kasımpaşa 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Alanyaspor scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Kasımpaşa managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.