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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

GAİN Park Stadyumu plays host to Alanyaspor versus Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 23 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Alanyaspor have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Alanyaspor at GAİN Park Stadyumu this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at GAİN Park Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Kasımpaşa (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Kasımpaşa's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head ledger leans to Kasımpaşa, who have claimed 5 wins from 8 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with Kasımpaşa winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Kasımpaşa have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

Alanyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).

Kasımpaşa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alanyaspor 54% and Kasımpaşa 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 42% | Kasımpaşa 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.21 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.830 / defence 0.624 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.875 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.296. Alanyaspor's defence rating of 0.624 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Alanyaspor games / 48 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 46% | Draw 35% | Kasımpaşa 19%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.17 | Draw 2.86 | Kasımpaşa 5.26. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 20% | Kasımpaşa 40% BTTS from recent games.

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