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Stalemate at Alanyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, as Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.23 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.87 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Alanyaspor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Gaziantep FK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.90 / defence 0.66 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.99 / defence 1.03, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 41% | Draw 35% | Gaziantep FK 23%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 44%, Gaziantep FK 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alanyaspor's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.26 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights