Alanyaspor 1-1 Galatasaray – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 24 as Alanyaspor welcome Galatasaray to Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's home record at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Galatasaray stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Galatasaray, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Galatasaray have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Alanyaspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Alanyaspor, 0 for Galatasaray and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Alanyaspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Galatasaray trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 52% versus Galatasaray 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 48% | Galatasaray 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 2.06 xG and Galatasaray 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.257 / defence 1.194 | Galatasaray attack 0.814 / defence 1.397. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.088. Alanyaspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Galatasaray bring a strong defensive rating of 1.397 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Alanyaspor games / 23 Galatasaray games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 60% | Draw 21% | Galatasaray 19%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Galatasaray 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 50% | Galatasaray 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 60% | Draw 21% | Galatasaray 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG Alanyaspor 2.06 / Galatasaray 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.257 / def 1.194 | Galatasaray attack 0.814 / def 1.397 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Galatasaray xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Alanyaspor 1 - 1 Galatasaray.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray being played?
The match is being played at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray part of?
Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 60% chance of winning, Galatasaray a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Alanyaspor and Galatasaray will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Galatasaray?
Record (1 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Galatasaray 0W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Galatasaray in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Galatasaray (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (1.26) and Galatasaray's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Galatasaray's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
60%
1.66
21%
4.81
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.12
1.06
Galatasaray xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
13%
7.82
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
2%
41.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Galatasaray expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.06 for Galatasaray, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor come into this having played 23 games, going 11W 5D 7L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Galatasaray sit at 1.17 PPG from 23 outings (7W 6D 10L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Galatasaray is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Galatasaray — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alanyaspor's home form reads 5W 3D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Galatasaray have taken 0.91 points per game from 11 outings (2W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Galatasaray are on 1.22 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Galatasaray
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Galatasaray in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 11W 5D 7L in their last 23 games (1.65 PPG), while Galatasaray have gone 7W 6D 10L in their last 23 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Galatasaray away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.64 PPG; Galatasaray away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Galatasaray been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Galatasaray in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alanyaspor and Galatasaray runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Galatasaray have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2023, when Galatasaray won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Galatasaray specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
7
Galatasaray
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Galatasaray?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 1, Galatasaray have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Galatasaray last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Galatasaray 3-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Galatasaray?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 54%, Galatasaray 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Alanyaspor) and 54% (Galatasaray).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Galatasaray in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Galatasaray away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Galatasaray?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 54% of Galatasaray's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 54% of Galatasaray's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Galatasaray tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Galatasaray in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor and Galatasaray share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, as Alanyaspor and Galatasaray drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 2.06 xG and Galatasaray 1.06 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Alanyaspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.26 / defence 1.19 against Galatasaray attack 0.81 / defence 1.40, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 60% | Draw 21% | Galatasaray 19%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 48%, Galatasaray 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Galatasaray's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.