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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Galatasaray edge out Alanyaspor 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Galatasaray beat Alanyaspor 1-2 at GAIN Park Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.49 xG and Galatasaray 2.18 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.12 / defence 1.20 against Galatasaray attack 1.53 / defence 0.81, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 26% | Draw 21% | Galatasaray 53%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 48%, Galatasaray 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alanyaspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Galatasaray's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.65 PPG against 1.32. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights