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Prediction vindicated as Alanyaspor edge out Göztepe 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alanyaspor beat Göztepe 1-0 at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 0.97 xG and Göztepe 0.87 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Göztepe landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.90 / defence 0.72 against Göztepe attack 0.92 / defence 0.82, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 34% | Draw 38% | Göztepe 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Alanyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 46%, Göztepe 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alanyaspor's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Göztepe's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.25 PPG, Göztepe 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights