🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 37%, yet in-form Fenerbahçe provide a compelling counter-argument — this Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Fenerbahçe travel to Alanya Oba Stadium to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 March 2027, 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Alanyaspor at Alanya Oba Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Fenerbahçe — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Fenerbahçe haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fenerbahçe are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

Fenerbahçe have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 10 encounters against Alanyaspor's 1 victories.

The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 2–3 with Fenerbahçe winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Alanyaspor trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Fenerbahçe trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alanyaspor 62% and Fenerbahçe 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 47% | Fenerbahçe 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.52 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.046 / defence 1.035 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.255 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Alanyaspor games / 34 Fenerbahçe games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 37% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 35%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Fenerbahçe 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fenerbahçe (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 70% | Fenerbahçe 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights