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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Alanyaspor face Fenerbahçe.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Fenerbahçe travel to GAİN Park Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 January 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Alanyaspor at GAİN Park Stadyumu this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at GAİN Park Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Fenerbahçe — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fenerbahçe are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

Fenerbahçe have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters against Alanyaspor's 1 victories.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Alanyaspor trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).

Fenerbahçe trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 53% versus Fenerbahçe 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 40% | Fenerbahçe 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 0.89 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.823 / defence 0.707 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.480 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.279. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.480 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Alanyaspor's defence rating of 0.707 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Alanyaspor games / 53 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 21% | Draw 36% | Fenerbahçe 43%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 4.76 | Draw 2.78 | Fenerbahçe 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 20% | Fenerbahçe 60% BTTS from recent games.

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