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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Alanyaspor 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Alanyaspor 2-3 at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 0.89 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.34 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.82 / defence 0.71 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.48 / defence 0.82, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 21% | Draw 36% | Fenerbahçe 43%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 40%, Fenerbahçe 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alanyaspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights