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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Eyüpspor cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Alanyaspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eyüpspor beat Alanyaspor 1-3 at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.25 xG and Eyüpspor 0.77 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Eyüpspor outscored their 0.77 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.92 / defence 0.85 against Eyüpspor attack 0.71 / defence 1.06, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 44% | Draw 37% | Eyüpspor 19%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Eyüpspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 40%, Eyüpspor 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alanyaspor's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Eyüpspor's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.22 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights