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Shock result as Bodrum FK defy the odds to beat Alanyaspor 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bodrum FK beat Alanyaspor 0-1 at GAIN Park Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.55 xG and Bodrum FK 0.99 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Alanyaspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.07 / defence 1.15 against Bodrum FK attack 0.72 / defence 0.89, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 50% | Draw 27% | Bodrum FK 24%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Bodrum FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 50%, Bodrum FK 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alanyaspor's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bodrum FK's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.11 PPG, Bodrum FK 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bodrum FK win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights