Alanyaspor 1-0 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 39%, yet in-form Başakşehir provide a compelling counter-argument — this Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alanyaspor and Başakşehir meet at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Friday 3 March 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Alanyaspor have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's home record at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Başakşehir (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Başakşehir have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Başakşehir are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Alanyaspor, 1 for Başakşehir and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 0–2 with Başakşehir winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Alanyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Başakşehir goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 59% versus Başakşehir 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 63% | Başakşehir 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.44 xG and Başakşehir 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.129 / defence 1.008 | Başakşehir attack 1.010 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.320. Başakşehir's defence strength of 0.791 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 60 Alanyaspor games / 59 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 39% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 35%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Başakşehir 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Başakşehir (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Alanyaspor 50% | Başakşehir 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 3 Mar 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 39% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Alanyaspor 1.44 / Başakşehir 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.129 / def 1.008 | Başakşehir attack 1.010 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Başakşehir xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 3 March 2023 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Alanyaspor 1 - 0 Başakşehir.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 39% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Alanyaspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Başakşehir?
Record (3 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Başakşehir 1W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Başakşehir in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (1.13) and Başakşehir's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (1.01x) against Alanyaspor's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 60/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
39%
2.54
25%
3.94
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.78
1.34
Başakşehir xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
10%
9.73
8%
11.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.34 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Alanyaspor come into this having played 59 games, going 24W 14D 21L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Başakşehir sit at 1.78 PPG from 59 outings (31W 12D 16L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Alanyaspor against 1.78 for Başakşehir. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Alanyaspor's home form reads 14W 8D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Başakşehir have taken 1.45 points per game from 29 outings (11W 9D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.49 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 24W 14D 21L in their last 59 games (1.46 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 31W 12D 16L in their last 59 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.72 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
4
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 4, Başakşehir have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Alanyaspor 1-2 Başakşehir.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 59%, Başakşehir 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Alanyaspor) and 45% (Başakşehir).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Alanyaspor's games and 59% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 45% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alanyaspor edge out Başakşehir 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Başakşehir 1-0 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.44 xG and Başakşehir 1.34 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.13 / defence 1.01 against Başakşehir attack 1.01 / defence 0.79, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 39% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 35%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 63%, Başakşehir 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Başakşehir's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.46 PPG, Başakşehir 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.