🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Alanyaspor 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir beat Alanyaspor 1-2 at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.01 xG and Başakşehir 1.60 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.90 / defence 0.99 against Başakşehir attack 1.23 / defence 0.81, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 20% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 47%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 43%, Başakşehir 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alanyaspor's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Başakşehir's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.22 PPG, Başakşehir 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights