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Stalemate at Alanyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, as Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 0.97 xG and Antalyaspor 0.79 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Alanyaspor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.84 / defence 0.76 against Antalyaspor attack 0.78 / defence 0.91, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 35% | Draw 41% | Antalyaspor 25%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 42%, Antalyaspor 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alanyaspor's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Antalyaspor's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.22 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights