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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Alanyaspor take on Antalyaspor.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Antalyaspor travel to GAİN Park Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Monday 8 December 2025, 17:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Alanyaspor have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at GAİN Park Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at GAİN Park Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.

Antalyaspor — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Antalyaspor have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Alanyaspor) versus 0.80 (Antalyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Antalyaspor have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Alanyaspor.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with Antalyaspor winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Antalyaspor have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).

Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 56% versus Antalyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 42% | Antalyaspor 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 0.97 xG and Antalyaspor 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.841 / defence 0.757 | Antalyaspor attack 0.783 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.332. Alanyaspor's defence rating of 0.757 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Alanyaspor games / 50 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 35% | Draw 41% | Antalyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.86 | Draw 2.44 | Antalyaspor 4.00. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 25% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 1.76 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 30% | Antalyaspor 40% BTTS from recent games.

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