Alanyaspor 1-4 Altay – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Alanyaspor take on Altay.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Altay make the trip to Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu to face Alanyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Alanyaspor (all games): 1W 0D 0L across 1 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Altay have collected 3.00 PPG across 1 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 0D 0L. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Altay have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 3.00 for Alanyaspor, 3.00 for Altay — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, Altay in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 0.92 xG and Altay 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.979 / defence 1.150 | Altay attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.816 / away 1.145. Data: 1 Alanyaspor games / 1 Altay games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 26% | Draw 38% | Altay 36%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 3.85 | Draw 2.63 | Altay 2.78. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Altay | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 26% | Draw 38% | Altay 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG Alanyaspor 0.92 / Altay 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.979 / def 1.150 | Altay attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.816 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Altay xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Altay kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Altay kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Altay?
Alanyaspor 1 - 4 Altay.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Altay being played?
The match is being played at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Altay part of?
Alanyaspor vs Altay is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Altay?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 26% chance of winning, Altay a 36% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Altay?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Alanyaspor and Altay will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Altay have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Altay?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alanyaspor and Altay in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. Altay (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Altay's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Altay's attack (0.85x) against Alanyaspor's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.90
38%
2.61
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.04
1.12
Altay xG
3.90
26%
Home win
2.61
38%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
8%
11.95
14%
6.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.6 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Altay?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Altay expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.12 for Altay, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Altay?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Alanyaspor have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Altay's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Altay, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 3.00 PPG for Alanyaspor against 3.00 for Altay. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Altay are on 3.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Altay's attacking output running into Alanyaspor's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Altay in 0%.
Defensively: Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Altay in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Early Season
Altay
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Altay in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Altay have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Alanyaspor or Altay been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Altay in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Alanyaspor
0
Draws
1
Altay
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Altay?
From 2 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 1, Altay have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Altay last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2022, when Altay 0-2 Alanyaspor.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Altay away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Altay?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 0% of Altay's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Altay usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 100% of Altay's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Altay tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Altay in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Altay run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Alanyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Altay beat Alanyaspor 1-4 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 0.92 xG and Altay 1.12 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Altay outscored their 1.12 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Altay attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 26% | Draw 38% | Altay 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Altay win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 0%, Altay 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 3.00 PPG, Altay 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Altay win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor shipped 4 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Altay scored 4 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.