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Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Adana Demirspor 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trabzonspor beat Adana Demirspor 0-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.12 xG and Trabzonspor 1.68 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Adana Demirspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.68 / defence 1.42 against Trabzonspor attack 1.01 / defence 1.03, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 25% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 50%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 60%, Trabzonspor 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Adana Demirspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Trabzonspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.81. Form held, and they took the win. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights