Adana Demirspor 1-0 Ümraniyespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Adana Demirspor at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Ümraniyespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ümraniyespor make the trip to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to face Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Adana Demirspor (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Adana Demirspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Adana Demirspor's home record at Yeni Adana Stadyumu: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Adana Demirspor are significantly better at Yeni Adana Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Ümraniyespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games (0.33 PPG). Last five: D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Ümraniyespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Adana Demirspor's 1.20 PPG return is 0.87 points per game ahead of Ümraniyespor's 0.33 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Ümraniyespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 67% versus Ümraniyespor 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Adana Demirspor 100% | Ümraniyespor 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 2.44 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.262 / defence 0.827 | Ümraniyespor attack 1.080 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.363. Adana Demirspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 2.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ümraniyespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Adana Demirspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Adana Demirspor games / 3 Ümraniyespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 64% | Draw 18% | Ümraniyespor 18%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 1.56 | Draw 5.56 | Ümraniyespor 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Adana Demirspor (64%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.44 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Adana Demirspor as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.66 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral: Adana Demirspor 60% | Ümraniyespor 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Ümraniyespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 64% | Draw 18% | Ümraniyespor 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 64% | xG Adana Demirspor 2.44 / Ümraniyespor 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.262 / def 0.827 | Ümraniyespor attack 1.080 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Ümraniyespor xG
64%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Ümraniyespor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Ümraniyespor kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Adana Demirspor 1 - 0 Ümraniyespor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Ümraniyespor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Ümraniyespor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Ümraniyespor is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 64% chance of winning, Ümraniyespor a 18% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Ümraniyespor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Ümraniyespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Ümraniyespor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Ümraniyespor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Ümraniyespor (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Adana Demirspor's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Ümraniyespor's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.44. Flip it around — Ümraniyespor's attack (1.08x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
64%
1.56
18%
5.49
18%
5.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
3.66
1.22
Ümraniyespor xG
1.56
64%
Home win
5.49
18%
Draw
5.70
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
9%
11.47
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
2%
65.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Ümraniyespor expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.22 for Ümraniyespor, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 3 outings, Adana Demirspor have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 1L record — W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ümraniyespor's form line: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, 0.33 PPG, last five D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Ümraniyespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Adana Demirspor are the form team by 1.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ümraniyespor.
Attack vs Defence
Adana Demirspor are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Ümraniyespor are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Early Season
Ümraniyespor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Ümraniyespor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Ümraniyespor have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Adana Demirspor or Ümraniyespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ümraniyespor in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Adana Demirspor
1
Draws
0
Ümraniyespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Ümraniyespor?
From 2 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 1, Ümraniyespor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Ümraniyespor last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2023, when Ümraniyespor 1-1 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Ümraniyespor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Ümraniyespor see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 67%, Ümraniyespor 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Adana Demirspor and 33% for Ümraniyespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ümraniyespor in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Ümraniyespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Ümraniyespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 33% of Ümraniyespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Ümraniyespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 33% of Ümraniyespor's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Ümraniyespor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ümraniyespor in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Adana Demirspor edge out Ümraniyespor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Ümraniyespor 1-0 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 2.44 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.22 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Adana Demirspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Ümraniyespor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.26 / defence 0.83 against Ümraniyespor attack 1.08 / defence 1.24, drawn from 41/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 64% | Draw 18% | Ümraniyespor 18%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 100%, Ümraniyespor 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Adana Demirspor managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Ümraniyespor managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.