Adana Demirspor 1-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Adana Demirspor and Kayserispor meet at Yeni Adana Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 January 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form
Adana Demirspor (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana Demirspor have gone 5W 2D 2L this season (9 games, 1.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yeni Adana Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kayserispor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Adana Demirspor, 0 for Kayserispor and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Adana Demirspor — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).
Kayserispor — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 55% versus Kayserispor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 45% | Kayserispor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.75 xG and Kayserispor 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.923 / defence 0.875 | Kayserispor attack 0.900 / defence 1.638. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.095. Kayserispor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.638 — this is suppressing Adana Demirspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Adana Demirspor games / 20 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 58% | Draw 23% | Kayserispor 18%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Kayserispor 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Adana Demirspor (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Adana Demirspor are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 22% | Kayserispor 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 58% | Draw 23% | Kayserispor 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.75 / Kayserispor 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.923 / def 0.875 | Kayserispor attack 0.900 / def 1.638 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Kayserispor xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor?
Adana Demirspor 1 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 58% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Kayserispor?
Record (1 meetings): Adana Demirspor 0W | Draws 1 | Kayserispor 0W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Kayserispor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Kayserispor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Adana Demirspor's attack rating (0.92) and Kayserispor's defence rating (1.64), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kayserispor's attack (0.90x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
58%
1.71
23%
4.28
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.61
0.86
Kayserispor xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
17%
5.76
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
3%
31.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 0.86 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 20 outings, Adana Demirspor have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 9W 6D 5L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kayserispor's form line: 7W 6D 7L from 20 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Adana Demirspor against 1.35 for Kayserispor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Adana Demirspor have posted 1.89 PPG from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L).
On the road, Kayserispor have gone 1W 3D 5L from 9 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kayserispor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Kayserispor in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 9W 6D 5L in their last 20 games (1.65 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 7W 6D 7L in their last 20 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.89 PPG; Kayserispor away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Adana Demirspor or Kayserispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Kayserispor in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Adana Demirspor have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Adana Demirspor
6
Draws
1
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Kayserispor?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 1, Kayserispor have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Adana Demirspor 0-2 Kayserispor.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Adana Demirspor see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 22%, Kayserispor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Adana Demirspor) and 56% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Adana Demirspor have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Kayserispor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 67% of Kayserispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 56% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Adana Demirspor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Adana Demirspor and Kayserispor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, as Adana Demirspor and Kayserispor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.75 xG and Kayserispor 0.86 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.92 / defence 0.88 against Kayserispor attack 0.90 / defence 1.64, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 58% | Draw 23% | Kayserispor 18%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 45%, Kayserispor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Kayserispor's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Adana Demirspor 1.65 PPG, Kayserispor 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.