Adana Demirspor 0-0 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Adana Demirspor at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Kasımpaşa travel to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to take on Adana Demirspor. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 November 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Adana Demirspor stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana Demirspor have gone 3W 1D 2L this season (6 games, 1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's away record: 0W 1D 5L from 6 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.17 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
Adana Demirspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.30 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Adana Demirspor in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 62% versus Kasımpaşa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 54% | Kasımpaşa 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.51 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.973 / defence 1.078 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.632 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.116. Kasımpaşa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing Adana Demirspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Adana Demirspor games / 13 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 55% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 19%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Kasımpaşa 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Adana Demirspor (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Adana Demirspor are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 33% | Kasımpaşa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 55% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 42% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.51 / Kasımpaşa 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.973 / def 1.078 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.632 / def 1.310 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Kasımpaşa xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 26 November 2021 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Adana Demirspor 0 - 0 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 55% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Adana Demirspor's attack at 0.97x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.84
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.27
0.76
Kasımpaşa xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
4%
24.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 11.9 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 0.76 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, Adana Demirspor have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 5W 4D 4L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 2W 3D 8L from 13 games, 0.69 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Adana Demirspor are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kasımpaşa.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Adana Demirspor have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 away games — 0.17 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kasımpaşa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.00 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 5W 4D 4L in their last 13 games (1.46 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 2W 3D 8L in their last 13 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.67 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 0.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Adana Demirspor won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Adana Demirspor
2
Draws
4
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 2, Kasımpaşa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Adana Demirspor 3-5 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Adana Demirspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 33%, Kasımpaşa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Adana Demirspor and 33% for Kasımpaşa.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Adana Demirspor have failed to score in 33% of games; Kasımpaşa in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 50% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 33% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Adana Demirspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, as Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.51 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.76 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Adana Demirspor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.97 / defence 1.08 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.63 / defence 1.31, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 55% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 19%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 54%, Kasımpaşa 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.