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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kasımpaşa cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over Adana Demirspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kasımpaşa beat Adana Demirspor 3-5 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.19 xG and Kasımpaşa 2.13 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. Adana Demirspor beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kasımpaşa outscored their 2.13 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.63 / defence 1.41 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.23 / defence 1.09, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 19% | Draw 24% | Kasımpaşa 57%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 60%, Kasımpaşa 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Adana Demirspor's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Kasımpaşa arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights