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Dominant Hatayspor run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Adana Demirspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hatayspor beat Adana Demirspor 0-5 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.41 xG and Hatayspor 1.47 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Adana Demirspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Hatayspor outscored their 1.47 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.64 / defence 1.34 against Hatayspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.38, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 36% | Draw 25% | Hatayspor 39%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 61%, Hatayspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Adana Demirspor's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Hatayspor's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Adana Demirspor 0.76 PPG, Hatayspor 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hatayspor win broke the near-deadlock. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights