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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Adana Demirspor and Gaziantep FK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Adana Demirspor and Gaziantep FK finished level at 2-2 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 0.88 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.54 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Adana Demirspor beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.56 / defence 1.51 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.79 / defence 0.98, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 21% | Draw 26% | Gaziantep FK 53%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 62%, Gaziantep FK 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Adana Demirspor's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Gaziantep FK arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights