Adana Demirspor 1-1 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yeni Adana Stadyumu plays host to Adana Demirspor versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Thursday 2 February 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Adana Demirspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Yeni Adana Stadyumu this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yeni Adana Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Adana Demirspor are significantly better at Yeni Adana Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Fenerbahçe (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Fenerbahçe arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Adana Demirspor 1W, Fenerbahçe 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2022, ended 2–4 with Fenerbahçe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Adana Demirspor half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 57% versus Fenerbahçe 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 55% | Fenerbahçe 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.67 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.263 / defence 0.750 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.216 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.401. Adana Demirspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.216 — the away xG of 1.28 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Adana Demirspor's defence rating of 0.750 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Adana Demirspor games / 58 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 46% | Draw 24% | Fenerbahçe 29%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Fenerbahçe 3.45. Adana Demirspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Adana Demirspor as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fenerbahçe (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Adana Demirspor 50% | Fenerbahçe 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Thursday 2 Feb 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 46% | Draw 24% | Fenerbahçe 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.67 / Fenerbahçe 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.263 / def 0.750 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.216 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.643 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Fenerbahçe xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 2 February 2023 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Adana Demirspor 1 - 1 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 46% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (3 meetings): Adana Demirspor 1W | Draws 0 | Fenerbahçe 2W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Adana Demirspor's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.22x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
46%
2.15
24%
4.15
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.94
1.28
Fenerbahçe xG
2.15
46%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
6%
17.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.28 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Adana Demirspor come into this having played 58 games, going 25W 17D 16L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.02 PPG from 58 outings (35W 12D 11L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Adana Demirspor's home form reads 15W 8D 5L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 1.93 points per game from 28 outings (16W 6D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.14 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 25W 17D 16L in their last 58 games (1.59 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 35W 12D 11L in their last 58 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.89 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Adana Demirspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Fenerbahçe go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 0-4 on 19 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Adana Demirspor have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Adana Demirspor
2
Draws
5
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Adana Demirspor 0-4 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 50%, Fenerbahçe 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Adana Demirspor) and 61% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Adana Demirspor's games and 61% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 61% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe finished level at 1-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.67 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.28 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.26 / defence 0.75 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.22 / defence 0.80, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 46% | Draw 24% | Fenerbahçe 29%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 55%, Fenerbahçe 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.59. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.