Adana Demirspor 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Adana Demirspor at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yeni Adana Stadyumu plays host to Adana Demirspor versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 25 December 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Adana Demirspor have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 6D 0L. Last five: D W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Yeni Adana Stadyumu this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Adana Demirspor's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Fatih Karagümrük's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Fatih Karagümrük in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Adana Demirspor, 1 for Fatih Karagümrük and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 5–0 with Adana Demirspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 55% versus Fatih Karagümrük 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 53% | Fatih Karagümrük 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.97 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.068 / defence 0.796 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.083 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.426. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Adana Demirspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Adana Demirspor's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Adana Demirspor games / 51 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 54% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 23%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Fatih Karagümrük 4.35. Adana Demirspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Adana Demirspor at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 60% | Fatih Karagümrük 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Dec 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 54% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.97 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.068 / def 0.796 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.083 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.426 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Fatih Karagümrük xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 25 December 2022 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Adana Demirspor 2 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 54% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (2 meetings): Adana Demirspor 1W | Draws 0 | Fatih Karagümrük 1W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Adana Demirspor's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Fatih Karagümrük's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (1.08x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
54%
1.85
23%
4.40
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
3.20
1.23
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
14%
7.14
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
3%
30.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.23 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Adana Demirspor come into this having played 51 games, going 21W 16D 14L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-D. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fatih Karagümrük sit at 1.37 PPG from 51 outings (19W 13D 19L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Adana Demirspor against 1.37 for Fatih Karagümrük. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Adana Demirspor's home form reads 12W 7D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Fatih Karagümrük have taken 1.08 points per game from 24 outings (7W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.39 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 21W 16D 14L in their last 51 games (1.55 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 19W 13D 19L in their last 51 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.79 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Adana Demirspor won 5-0 on 22 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Adana Demirspor have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Adana Demirspor
0
Draws
2
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 6 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 4, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2024, when Adana Demirspor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 46%, Fatih Karagümrük 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Adana Demirspor) and 62% (Fatih Karagümrük).
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 54% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 62% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Adana Demirspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Adana Demirspor edge out Fatih Karagümrük 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.97 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.23 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.07 / defence 0.80 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.08 / defence 1.28, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 54% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 23%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 53%, Fatih Karagümrük 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Adana Demirspor 1.55 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Adana Demirspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.