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Stalemate at Adana Demirspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, as Adana Demirspor and Bodrum FK drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.25 xG and Bodrum FK 1.27 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Adana Demirspor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Bodrum FK landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.78 / defence 1.53 against Bodrum FK attack 0.68 / defence 1.00, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 35% | Draw 29% | Bodrum FK 36%, with Bodrum FK to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 62%, Bodrum FK 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Adana Demirspor's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bodrum FK's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Bodrum FK arrived the stronger side — 0.96 PPG against 0.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights