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Shock result as Adana Demirspor defy the odds to beat Beşiktaş 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Adana Demirspor beat Beşiktaş 2-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 0.76 xG and Beşiktaş 1.75 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Adana Demirspor beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.67 / defence 1.52 against Beşiktaş attack 0.97 / defence 0.69, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 15% | Draw 26% | Beşiktaş 60%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Adana Demirspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 60%, Beşiktaş 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Adana Demirspor's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Beşiktaş's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Adana Demirspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights