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Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Adana Demirspor 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir beat Adana Demirspor 0-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.42 xG and Başakşehir 1.62 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Adana Demirspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.78 / defence 1.42 against Başakşehir attack 0.96 / defence 1.11, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 32% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 40%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 61%, Başakşehir 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Adana Demirspor's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Başakşehir's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights