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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor finished level at 1-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.53 xG and Antalyaspor 1.75 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.78 / defence 1.59 against Antalyaspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 32% | Draw 26% | Antalyaspor 42%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 60%, Antalyaspor 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Adana Demirspor's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Antalyaspor's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Adana Demirspor 0.87 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights