Adana Demirspor 3-1 Altay – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Adana Demirspor vs Altay fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 32 as Adana Demirspor welcome Altay to Yeni Adana Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Adana Demirspor have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Adana Demirspor's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Yeni Adana Stadyumu this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
Altay — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Altay's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Adana Demirspor) versus 1.10 (Altay). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Adana Demirspor, 0 for Altay and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 3–1 with Adana Demirspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Adana Demirspor trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Altay trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 52% versus Altay 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 45% | Altay 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.36 xG and Altay 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.990 / defence 1.004 | Altay attack 0.666 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.217. Data: 31 Adana Demirspor games / 31 Altay games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 49% | Draw 30% | Altay 21%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Altay 4.76. Adana Demirspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Adana Demirspor are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 40% | Altay 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Altay | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 49% | Draw 30% | Altay 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.36 / Altay 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.990 / def 1.004 | Altay attack 0.666 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Altay xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Altay kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Altay kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Altay?
Adana Demirspor 3 - 1 Altay.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Altay being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Altay part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Altay is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Altay?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 49% chance of winning, Altay a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Altay?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Altay will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Altay have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Altay?
Record (1 meetings): Adana Demirspor 1W | Draws 0 | Altay 0W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Altay in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Altay (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Adana Demirspor's attack at 0.99x the league average against Altay's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Altay's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
49%
2.04
30%
3.38
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.18
0.81
Altay xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
5%
18.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Altay?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Altay expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 0.81 for Altay, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Altay?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Adana Demirspor have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 13W 10D 8L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Altay's form line: 8W 5D 18L from 31 games, 0.94 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Adana Demirspor are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Altay.
Venue Form
On home soil, Adana Demirspor have posted 1.73 PPG from 15 outings (7W 5D 3L).
On the road, Altay have gone 2W 3D 10L from 15 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Altay are on 1.03 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
Altay
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Altay in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 13W 10D 8L in their last 31 games (1.58 PPG), while Altay have gone 8W 5D 18L in their last 31 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Altay away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.73 PPG; Altay away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Adana Demirspor
0
Draws
0
Altay
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Altay?
From 2 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 2, Altay have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Altay last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2022, when Adana Demirspor 3-1 Altay.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Altay?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Adana Demirspor see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Altay see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 40%, Altay 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Adana Demirspor) and 53% (Altay).
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Adana Demirspor have failed to score in 27% of games; Altay in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Altay away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Altay?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 53% of Altay's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Altay usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 53% of Altay's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Adana Demirspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Altay.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Altay 3-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.36 xG and Altay 0.81 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Adana Demirspor beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.99 / defence 1.00 against Altay attack 0.67 / defence 1.12, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 49% | Draw 30% | Altay 21%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 45%, Altay 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Altay's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. Altay (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.