Adana Demirspor 4-2 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Adana Demirspor at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 33 as Adana Demirspor welcome Alanyaspor to Yeni Adana Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Adana Demirspor have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Adana Demirspor have posted 8W 2D 0L at Yeni Adana Stadyumu — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yeni Adana Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Adana Demirspor are significantly better at Yeni Adana Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Alanyaspor away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Adana Demirspor have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Adana Demirspor have won 1, Alanyaspor 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Adana Demirspor trading profile (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Alanyaspor trading profile (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 56% versus Alanyaspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 56% | Alanyaspor 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 3.02 xG and Alanyaspor 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.479 / defence 0.765 | Alanyaspor attack 0.935 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.375. Adana Demirspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.479 — their λ of 3.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Adana Demirspor's defence rating of 0.765 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 68 Adana Demirspor games / 69 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 78% | Draw 13% | Alanyaspor 9%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 1.28 | Draw 7.69 | Alanyaspor 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Adana Demirspor (78%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 4.00. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.00 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (3.02 / 0.98) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Adana Demirspor as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 50% | Alanyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 78% | Draw 13% | Alanyaspor 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 60% | xG Adana Demirspor 3.02 / Alanyaspor 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.479 / def 0.765 | Alanyaspor attack 0.935 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.02
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Alanyaspor xG
60%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor?
Adana Demirspor 4 - 2 Alanyaspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 78% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 9% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (3 meetings): Adana Demirspor 1W | Draws 1 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Adana Demirspor's attacking strength (1.48x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.02. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-0, at 8.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.3%), 3-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
78%
1.28
13%
7.76
9%
11.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.02
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
4.00
0.98
Alanyaspor xG
1.28
78%
Home win
7.76
13%
Draw
11.04
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
5%
20.47
Win to Nil
29%
3.43
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 3.02 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 0.98 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 4.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Adana Demirspor come into this having played 68 games, going 31W 19D 18L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.46 PPG from 68 outings (28W 15D 25L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Adana Demirspor on 1.65 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Adana Demirspor's home form reads 20W 9D 4L across 33 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — Adana Demirspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 1.21 points per game from 33 outings (11W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.65 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
Alanyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 31W 19D 18L in their last 68 games (1.65 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 28W 15D 25L in their last 68 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 2.09 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Alanyaspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Adana Demirspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Adana Demirspor
2
Draws
3
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 3, Alanyaspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Alanyaspor 3-2 Adana Demirspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 48%, Alanyaspor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Adana Demirspor) and 64% (Alanyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 58% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 64% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Adana Demirspor cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Alanyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Alanyaspor 4-2 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 3.02 xG and Alanyaspor 0.98 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Adana Demirspor beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alanyaspor outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.48 / defence 0.77 against Alanyaspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.20, drawn from 68/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 78% | Draw 13% | Alanyaspor 9%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 78%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 56%, Alanyaspor 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Adana Demirspor 1.65 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Adana Demirspor win broke the near-deadlock. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.24 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.