Adana Demirspor 1-2 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 36 as Adana Demirspor welcome Alanyaspor to Yeni Adana Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Adana Demirspor have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Adana Demirspor have posted 5W 3D 2L at Yeni Adana Stadyumu — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Adana Demirspor are significantly better at Yeni Adana Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Alanyaspor away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Adana Demirspor at 1.10 PPG versus Alanyaspor's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Adana Demirspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Alanyaspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Adana Demirspor have won 1, Alanyaspor 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 3–1 with Adana Demirspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Adana Demirspor trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Alanyaspor trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 51% versus Alanyaspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 49% | Alanyaspor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.67 xG and Alanyaspor 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.090 / defence 1.094 | Alanyaspor attack 0.885 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.347. Alanyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Adana Demirspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Adana Demirspor games / 35 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 44% | Draw 27% | Alanyaspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Alanyaspor 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Adana Demirspor as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 60% | Alanyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 44% | Draw 27% | Alanyaspor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.67 / Alanyaspor 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.090 / def 1.094 | Alanyaspor attack 0.885 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Alanyaspor xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor?
Adana Demirspor 1 - 2 Alanyaspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 44% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Adana Demirspor 1W | Draws 0 | Alanyaspor 0W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Adana Demirspor's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
44%
2.25
27%
3.72
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.97
1.30
Alanyaspor xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
12%
8.28
5%
18.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.30 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Adana Demirspor come into this having played 35 games, going 14W 10D 11L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.57 PPG from 35 outings (16W 7D 12L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Adana Demirspor on 1.49 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Adana Demirspor's home form reads 8W 5D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 1.59 points per game from 17 outings (8W 3D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.74 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor in 60%.
Last 35 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
Alanyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 14W 10D 11L in their last 35 games (1.49 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 16W 7D 12L in their last 35 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.71 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Alanyaspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Adana Demirspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Adana Demirspor
2
Draws
3
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 3, Alanyaspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Alanyaspor 3-2 Adana Demirspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Adana Demirspor see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 47%, Alanyaspor 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Adana Demirspor) and 53% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 53% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 53% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alanyaspor defy the odds to beat Adana Demirspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Adana Demirspor 1-2 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.67 xG and Alanyaspor 1.30 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.09 / defence 1.09 against Alanyaspor attack 0.89 / defence 1.26, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 44% | Draw 27% | Alanyaspor 29%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Alanyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 49%, Alanyaspor 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Adana Demirspor 1.49 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.