Adana Demirspor 0-2 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 6 as Adana Demirspor welcome Alanyaspor to Yeni Adana Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Adana Demirspor have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Adana Demirspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Adana Demirspor have posted 2W 1D 7L at Yeni Adana Stadyumu — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 1W 7D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Alanyaspor — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Adana Demirspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Alanyaspor in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Adana Demirspor have won 3, Alanyaspor 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Adana Demirspor trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Alanyaspor trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Adana Demirspor 63% and Alanyaspor 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 60% | Alanyaspor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.55 xG and Alanyaspor 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.909 / defence 1.494 | Alanyaspor attack 0.973 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.252. Alanyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Adana Demirspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Adana Demirspor games / 43 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 32% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 43%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Alanyaspor 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Adana Demirspor dominate the H2H record, yet Alanyaspor are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 60% | Alanyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 32% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.55 / Alanyaspor 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.909 / def 1.494 | Alanyaspor attack 0.973 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Alanyaspor xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor?
Adana Demirspor 0 - 2 Alanyaspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 32% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (6 meetings): Adana Demirspor 3W | Draws 2 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Adana Demirspor's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
32%
3.11
25%
4.07
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
3.37
1.82
Alanyaspor xG
3.11
32%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
16%
6.17
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
5%
19.18
9%
10.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.82 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Adana Demirspor come into this having played 43 games, going 10W 15D 18L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.28 PPG from 43 outings (12W 19D 12L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Adana Demirspor on 1.05 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Adana Demirspor's home form reads 9W 4D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Adana Demirspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 1.10 points per game from 21 outings (5W 8D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.33 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Early Season
Alanyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 10W 15D 18L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 12W 19D 12L in their last 43 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.48 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Alanyaspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Adana Demirspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Adana Demirspor
2
Draws
3
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 3, Alanyaspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Alanyaspor 3-2 Adana Demirspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 57%, Alanyaspor 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Adana Demirspor) and 48% (Alanyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 52% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 48% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Adana Demirspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Adana Demirspor 0-2 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.55 xG and Alanyaspor 1.82 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Adana Demirspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.49 against Alanyaspor attack 0.97 / defence 1.21, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 32% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 43%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 60%, Alanyaspor 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Adana Demirspor 1.05 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.