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Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Trabzonspor face Kasımpaşa.

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Analysis

Kasımpaşa make the trip to Papara Park to face Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Friday 23 January 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Trabzonspor have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Trabzonspor at Papara Park this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Kasımpaşa's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Trabzonspor's favour (2.10 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Trabzonspor lead 4W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Trabzonspor winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 57% and Kasımpaşa 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 52% | Kasımpaşa 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.85 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.285 / defence 0.955 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.837 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.287. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 Trabzonspor games / 54 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 53% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 18%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Kasımpaşa 5.56. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 60% | Kasımpaşa 50% BTTS from recent games.

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