Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa finished level at 2-2 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.68 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.41 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.35 / defence 0.99 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.11 / defence 0.79, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 42% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 31%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 57%, Kasımpaşa 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Trabzonspor's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.61 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights