Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (1.11x) against Trabzonspor's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
42%
2.35
27%
3.75
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.09
1.41
Kasımpaşa xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
10%
9.64
6%
17.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.41 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.