🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Trabzonspor face Gaziantep FK.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Gaziantep FK travel to Papara Park to take on Trabzonspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 November 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Trabzonspor stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Trabzonspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Trabzonspor's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Papara Park this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Gaziantep FK have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Gaziantep FK haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Gaziantep FK's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, Trabzonspor have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

Trabzonspor hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 0 for Gaziantep FK, with 3 draws in between.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Trabzonspor winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Trabzonspor and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Profile

Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Gaziantep FK in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 68% and Gaziantep FK 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 56% | Gaziantep FK 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.70 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 0.968 / defence 1.064 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.983 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Trabzonspor games / 34 Gaziantep FK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 47% | Draw 28% | Gaziantep FK 25%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Gaziantep FK 4.00. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 80% | Gaziantep FK 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights