🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Trabzonspor and Göztepe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Papara Park, Regular Season - 29, as Trabzonspor and Göztepe drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 2.24 xG and Göztepe 0.99 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Trabzonspor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.19 / defence 0.96 against Göztepe attack 0.86 / defence 1.13, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 65% | Draw 20% | Göztepe 15%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 62%, Göztepe 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Trabzonspor's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Göztepe's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.35 PPG, Göztepe 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Göztepe (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights