Trabzonspor vs Bodrum FK – Match Report

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Bodrum FK 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trabzonspor beat Bodrum FK 1-0 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 2.74 xG and Bodrum FK 0.89 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Trabzonspor fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Bodrum FK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.31 / defence 1.09 against Bodrum FK attack 0.70 / defence 1.26, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 75% | Draw 17% | Bodrum FK 8%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 60%, Bodrum FK 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Trabzonspor's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bodrum FK's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.07 PPG, Bodrum FK 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights